The Bougainville Political Referendum Analysis treats the upcoming referendum of independence held in the state of Bougainville on 15th of June 2019. The referendum will either lead to greater autonomy or independance of the currently autonomous region from Papua New-Guinea.
Two Analysis are available for free download here: The first Analysis dissects the referendum processes, progress and the challenges faced by Bougainvilleans within Bougainville, and the second analysis highlights the most pressing triggers for conflict that might emerge out of the processes before, during and after the referendum.
The first analysis furthermore analyses Bougainville’s state of economy, peace building efforts, weapons disposal plans and overall good governance and peace leading up to the referendum vote.
Finally, an assessment of church obligations towards the peace process, weapons disposal and maintaining the peace before and after the referendum vote is also provided.
For the whole Analysis, follow the link below.
Author: Daphney Kiki, Institute for Mission and Research.
The second Analysis dives deeper into possible conflict triggers from various perspectives.
Conflict might emerge on political, economic and social level, each of which is treated in this synthesis and with regards to the several possible outcomes of the referendum vote.
A section treating different scenarios during which the legitimacy of the referendum outcome might be essentially questioned is also included.
For the whole synthesis, please follow the second link below.